Losses are being sat out
Losing trades are held 5.1× longer than winning ones (154h vs 30h). A classic sign of reluctance to cut losses — the main source of deep drawdowns.
Deep historical drawdown
Max drawdown reached 82.3% (peak 2024-07-18, trough 2024-07-31). A repeat of this drawdown could be unrecoverable.
Risk increases after losses
After two or more consecutive losses the average position size grows by 48% (0.76 lots vs the usual 0.51). Scaling up after losses is a martingale pattern that multiplies drawdowns.
The real drawdown is deeper than it looks
Max equity drawdown reached 82.3%, while the balance curve shows only 24.8%. The gap is the floating loss of open positions that the balance curve hides.
Long drawdown recovery
The longest stretch from an equity peak to a new high lasted 141 days. An investor in this strategy must be prepared for months without new highs.
Consistently profitable months
31 of 33 months closed positive (94%). A strong indicator of consistent performance.