Category: Trades and behavior

Win rate

Shows what share of closed trades finished with a profit.

Win rate is the percentage of closed trades that ended above zero. It is the easiest trade statistic to understand: how often a trade was a winner.

It helps describe the shape of a strategy. Some systems win often with small profits, while others win less often but make larger winners. Win rate becomes meaningful only beside average win, average loss and expectancy.

A 40% win rate can be fine if winners are much bigger than losers, and a 70% win rate can still lose money if rare losses are large. A common mistake is to treat win rate as proof of quality by itself. Small samples can also make the percentage look cleaner than it really is.

Example: out of 100 closed trades, 62 are profitable, 30 are losing and 8 are flat. Win rate is 62 / 100 = 62%. The 8 flat trades stay in the denominator and are not counted as wins.

How we compute it

We count closed trades with net P&L above zero and divide by all closed trades. Flat trades remain in the denominator and are not counted as wins.

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