Risk increases after losses
After two or more consecutive losses the average position size grows by 76% (3.08 lots vs the usual 1.75). Scaling up after losses is a martingale pattern that multiplies drawdowns.
The real drawdown is deeper than it looks
Max equity drawdown reached 29.2%, while the balance curve shows only 20.1%. The gap is the floating loss of open positions that the balance curve hides.
Losses are being sat out
Losing trades are held 3.7× longer than winning ones (227h vs 62h). A classic sign of reluctance to cut losses — the main source of deep drawdowns.
Long drawdown recovery
The longest stretch from an equity peak to a new high lasted 413 days. An investor in this strategy must be prepared for months without new highs.
Sunday is a toxic day
95% of net daily losses fall on Sunday (UTC). Worth reviewing what happens to the trading that day.
Consistently profitable months
30 of 41 months closed positive (73%). A strong indicator of consistent performance.