Trade expectancy
Shows how much one closed trade made or lost on average after costs.
Trade expectancy is the average net result of one closed trade. It answers a plain question: after wins, losses, commissions and swaps, what did one attempt usually add or subtract?
This metric helps judge whether the system is paid for taking trades. It is useful for comparing playbooks, symbols or periods, because it reduces many trades to one per-trade cash number.
Above zero means the average trade was profitable after costs; below zero means the average trade lost money. The scale matters: +$5 may be meaningful for small lots and irrelevant for large ones. A high win rate can still have negative expectancy if the losing trades are much larger than the winners.
Example: 10 trades include six wins of $50 each and four losses of $60 each. Gross wins are $300, losses are $240, so the net result is +$60. Expectancy is $60 / 10 = +$6 per trade.
How we compute it
For each closed trade we use net P&L: profit plus commission plus swap in the account currency. Then we average across trades; the rolling chart uses the latest 40 closed trades as its window.