Monte Carlo
Shows what paths could appear when past trades or returns are reshuffled.
Monte Carlo is a simulation based on the account's own history. It repeatedly reshuffles past trades or returns and builds possible paths, like dealing the same deck of cards in many different orders.
It is used to see whether the current path still looks normal for that history. If the live curve falls below the lower band, it is not a verdict, but it is a signal that the account is doing worse than most simulations based on past data.
It is important to read it as a scenario check, not a market forecast. P50 is the middle of the simulations, while P5 and P95 are the lower and upper bands. A short or biased history makes the simulation weaker, and the model cannot guess events that never appeared in the past.
Example: after 100 trades, 1,000 simulations show median +$4,000, P5 = -$1,500 and P95 = +$9,000. If the live result after 100 trades is -$2,300, it is below P5; if it is +$3,800, it is close to the middle of the band.
How we compute it
For trading accounts, we reshuffle the account's own closed-trade net P&L and publish P5, median and P95 paths. For Exante/IBKR investment accounts, we reshuffle monthly or daily TWR/NAV returns from a starting index of 1000; the server uses up to 1,000 simulations within the documented budget.